Well it’s been a quiet few days on the website. Been absolutely manic with a few bits to sort out personally so apologies for the lack of tips. Anyway, I think with the World Cup getting underway today it’s time to get the wagon back rolling with a little Diamond Treble!
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SAFE DIAMOND TREBLE PAYS 21/10
VALUE DIAMOND TREBLE PAYS 6/1
RISKY DIAMOND TREBLE PAYS 88/1
1) Brazil vs Croatia (FIFA World Cup, 7:45PM)
Well it would be rude not to have a bet on the opening game of the World Cup wouldn’t it? And so as the action gets underway in Sao Paolo this evening, we too will be delving into the markets to find a few bets that have taken our eye. The first of course will be for the host nation to start their World Cup campaign with a win. Croatia are no mugs but pretty much everyone is expecting the Brazilians to win tonight and we’re in the same boat really. They are a higher class and on home soil and the two met in the group stages back in 2006 when Brazil clocked up a 1-0 win over the Croats. Tonight though should be a whitewash in my eyes. Brazil’s preparation for this competition has been almost impeccable winning their last 9 consecutive friendlies, the last of which was a ground out win against Serbia. Croatia have been in decent form but I just can’t turn down a bet on Brazil to start well tonight. As for the value and risky bets well this is where the stats come into their own. For the value bet I’m taking unders on the cards market. I feel 4.5 is a bit high for an opening game which may be played at a slow pace and domestically, referee Yuichi Nishumura isn’t exactly card hungry. He’s shown 5 or more cards just once in the last 15 games he’s reffed and in a mixture of Asian qualification games and friendlies over the last year he’s shown 3,2,1,1 and 1 cards in his last 5 international fixtures.
SAFE BET: Brazil -1 Asian Handicap at 1.450
VALUE BET: Under 4.5 Asian Cards at 1.700
RISKY BET: Brazil to win 2-0 at 15/4
2) IK Start vs Rosenborg (Norwegian Tippaligaen, 5PM)
We have a full fixture list in Norway today and the pick of the bunch for me has to be Start vs Rosenborg. There are quite a few bets that I fancy but number 1 on the list has to be for Rosenborg to leave this game with at least a point. Start have failed to beat Rosenborg home or away in their last 6 attempts and where Start have won just 1 of 5 home games this season, Rosenborg are yet to taste defeat on their travels with 3 draws and 2 wins. I’m quite surprised by the odds on offer and for the safe bet the double chance simply has to be taken. In all honesty though, I think this has score draw written all over it. Rosenborg always score on the road but always seem to concede and 50% of the games played by these sides at home and away respectively this season have finished as a score draw. So if you’re looking for value then BTTS or the draw are the way forward.
SAFE BET: Rosenborg or Draw at 8/15
VALUE BET: 2 or 3 Goals Exactly at 21/20
RISKY BET: Draw at 12/5
3) BATE Borisov vs Shakytor Soligorsk (Belarussian Premier League, 5PM)
I’m heading to Belarus for the 3rd part of the treble in a meeting between league leaders BATE and 7th placed Shakytor. BATE are flying at the moment without loss in their last 10 consecutive games, winning 8 of those and tonight is a chance to move 3 points clear at the top of the table. They face a Shakytor side who are a bit out of sorts at present without a win in their last 3 and most recently picking up a loss against bottom of the league Belshina and a draw against 2nd bottom Dinamo Brest. Even though Shakytor won the reverse fixture 2-0 back in March, I see a complete turnaround of that result today given both sides’ recent form. Shakytor have failed to win here since 2010, losing 4 of those 5 games since then and with BATE hot in the hunt for another spot in Europe, this is a real chance for them to put some distance between themselves and the chasing pack.
SAFE BET: BATE Borisov to win at 4/9
VALUE BET: BATE Borisov to win to nil at 21/20
RISKY BET: BATE Borisov to win 2-0 at 9/2
